This is so exciting. I legitimately cannot wait to watch what happens this weekend. Let’s stop talking about it and dive in:
Battle For Austin… Loser Changes His Name:
Gaults 143.4 proj (49% win prob.)vs Boss 147.5 proj. (51% win prob)
– Allen vs Det // Daniels vs Nola — I like Allen in this matchup. Lions D can give up points and after last week I think Allen takes the lead in the MVP voting
– Kyren vs SF // Mixon vs Mia — I like Mixon in this matchup. The Dolphins have been pretty stout vs the run this year but Kyren has a putrid YPC and despite the Texans offensive woes, Mixon is having a career year and I expect a big showing out of him to get the Hou season back on track
– Kamara vs Wsh // Tyrone Tracy vs Bal — Obvious advantage to Kamara on this one. Baltimores secondary sucks but their front 7 is still as vaunted as front 7 that you’ll find in the league. Couple that with the Giants inept offense and sporadic QB play, look for Kamara to comfortably beat Tracy in this matchup
– Evans vs LAC // McLaurin vs Nola — This one is tough. Nola is down their #1 CB since trading Lattimore to the Commanders and Terry is having a career season in terms of yards. I think advantage Evans. Baker hasn’t been playing his best lately with a bevy of turnovers, but it’s getting to the end of the season and TB has a knack for playing spoiler against good teams (cc vs Lions and Eagles). I think they force feed Evans to get him closer to his 40th straight 1k yard season and he eclipses the 100 yard mark with a score.
– Jeudy vs KC // Debo vs LAR — Easy one here. It’s Jeudy who’s sky rocketed to 3rd in the NFL in yards. Debo has fallen off the face of the earth. 49ers recipe is running the ball and generating explosive down field plays with Kittle and Jennings. KC is a tough matchup for Cleveland, but I think Jerry gets his yards while the rest of the Browns are shut out, a carbon copy of the Steelers game.
– Ertz vs Nola // Njoku vs KC — Ertxz is having suprsingly a solid year despite approaching 60. I think Njoku gets the nod on this one. Don’t expect a ton of yards. Look for similar production to that of last weeks when he went for 7-42-1. I think Njoku is always a threat to find the end zone regardless of the QB.
– FLEX Swift vs Min // Jefferson vs Chi — Easy one here again. Jettas floor is 20 points… his floor. Swift has fallen out form from his streak of getting 150 + yards from scrimmage mid way through the year and the Bears offense is a shell of itself from when they were 4-2.
– FLEX Puka vs SF // Montgomery vs Buf — Advantage Puka on this one. He’s a younger, bigger, stronger. version of Kupp and Stafford turns WR1’s into HOFers and that seems to be the trajectory with Matt’s new favorite target.
– Den D/ST vs Ind // Philly D/ST vs Pit — Advantage Denver. AR5 is a turn over machine and even in his best showing the Colts struggle to amass more than 300 yards of total O. Phi vs Pitt should be low scoring but I don’t see a lot of TO opporunities or either team which should lower the ceiling for the Phi D.
Battle For Burton… Loser Leaves Town:
Dave 141.2 proj (47% win prob) vs Luke 149.1 proj (53% win prob)
– Kyler vs NE // Mahommes vs CLE — Kyler should outscore Pat here. I get it Kyler isn’t having the best season for NFL, but for FF his floor has been a lot higher than that of Mahommes as the Chiefs offense has stuggled all year in putting up points and creating explosive plays.
– Pollard vs Cinci // Jonathan Taylor vs Denver — Give me Pollard on this one. The Cin D is on a historical pace to be among the worst ever and Pollard has been easily the best player on the Titans O all year. Both these players have low floors and JT a slightly higher ceiling, but the matchup does favor Pollard
– Guerendo vs LAR // Chubba vs Dallas — This Dallas run D is actually not that bad and this team has really been galvanized as of late. I think Chubba does fine, but Guerendo (assuming he plays and is healthy) is a feature back in this one and repeats the success he had in his first career start. Narrow edge to the 49ers RB.
– Nico vs Mia // Chase vs Ten — This matchup is going to be absolutely critical in deciding who advances. Chase has to be favored though. Burrow and he should eat the Titans alive as they basically look to pad their stats in whats been a horrendous year for the Bengals.
– Drake London vs LV // Kupp vs SF — I’m going to go advantage London. I think Puka is the feature in the Rams O and to slow down the 49ers rush the Rams lean on the run a bit more. When they do throw it will go to Puka though. Drake has been a solid safety blanket / WR1 in ATL and I think he just gets more catches and yards than Kupp but not by much.
– McBride vs NE // Kelce vs CLE — I want to bet with my heart and think that the frustrations that Kelce has felt all year are put to rest with a hometown performance for the ages, but again, the Chiefs O track record this year isn’t good and McBride is really WR1 in the Cards O. Advantage Trey.
– FLEX Ladd vs TB // Sutton vs Ind — Not that much of a toss up. Ladd is banged up vs a TB D who’s been stout these last two weeks and Sutton is having an all-pro caliber year vs a Colts D that gave up over 300 yards and 20+ points to the Patriots.
– FLEX Bucky vs LAC // Shakir vs Det — I think it’s a slight advantage for Shakir here. We’ve seen the Bucs revert back to a committee last week and White actually had a really good game. Shakir is the WR1 in Buffalo and he has great chemistry with Allen going to in a mtachup vs Det where the Lions do give up yards and points. Banged up Bucky vs the Chargers top D just doesn’t wow me enough to say advantage for the Bucs RB
– Wsh DST vs NO // Bal D/ST vs NYG — Yeah, this is also a no brainer. It’s Baltimore vs the Giants. I think both D/ST’s have a very high ceiling and low floor, but I don’t think with the Giants bad QB play can exploit the Ravens secondary.
PICK’EM!!!
I just like the teams players matchups more, even though his opponents players may out score his own, I don’t think it’ll be enough to make up the delta for the success that Kyler, Pollard, Nico, Drake, McBride, and Guerendo will have. I’m riding with the underdog, Dave assuming Guerendo is healthy and Bucky is back to form. Those 2 are key.
This last one is a total toss up, but I think it’s Gault. Josh Allen vs Daniels, I’m going with the MVP front runner to outscore Daniels by a margin and Kamara should easily outscore Tracy, along with Puka having another big day. It will be very close because JJ should make a mess of the Bears and Njokue is a looming 15-20 point threat. But Gaults stars just have very slightly better matchups.