1. Baltimore Ravens -2.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Game:
This AFC North rivalry always promises fireworks, but with both teams coming in with something to prove, it’s shaping up to be a critical matchup. The Ravens enter the week on a hot streak, while the Bengals look to bounce back after a rough start to their season.
Ravens Storyline to Watch:
Baltimore’s defensive secondary has been the key to their success over Joe Burrow and the Bengals in recent years. Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey pointed out that when Baltimore’s defense has held Cincinnati’s wide receivers to under 120 yards, they’ve won. But when those receivers go off, the Ravens have struggled. The Ravens’ defensive backs are a force to be reckoned with, and they’ll need to contain the Bengals’ talented trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd to get the job done.
Bengals Storyline to Watch:
The Bengals’ offseason focus on bolstering their defensive line could be a game-changer here. Cincinnati brought in Sheldon Rankins to boost their pass rush, replacing DJ Reader’s run-stopping abilities. With the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson and new addition Derrick Henry leading a potent rushing attack, the Bengals’ revamped defensive front will need to rise to the occasion. If Rankins and the defense can slow down the Ravens’ ground game, it could be a tight one in Baltimore.
Betting Take: I’m backing the Ravens at -2.5. With home-field advantage and Burrow’s struggles against this secondary, Baltimore will edge out a close one.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars +3 vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Game:
The Jaguars and Colts meet for an AFC South showdown. Jacksonville has dominated Indianapolis in recent years, winning nine straight home games against them, and the Colts will be hard-pressed to end that streak in a hostile environment.
Colts Storyline to Watch:
The Colts have been unable to win in Jacksonville since 2014, which is an incredible streak in the NFL. The Colts’ struggles in this matchup stem from turnovers—Indianapolis is -15 in turnover differential over their last nine games in Jacksonville. That means the Colts have consistently been outplayed in key moments, leading to frustrating results.
Jaguars Storyline to Watch:
Jacksonville has been frustratingly inconsistent defensively, especially when it comes to forcing turnovers. They’re still the only team in the league not to register a turnover on defense this season. If the Jags can’t force QB Anthony Richardson into mistakes, this game could stay closer than expected. However, Jacksonville’s defense has been excellent in limiting big plays, which could be key in limiting the Colts’ offensive attack.
Betting Take: Despite the Jaguars’ turnover woes, I like them to cover +3 at home. They’ve dominated Indy recently, and if Richardson struggles, Jacksonville will capitalize.
3. Houston Texans -1 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Game:
This Week 5 showdown in Houston could be one of the more intriguing matchups on the slate. The Bills have been dominant at times this season, but Houston has been tough to beat at home. The Texans’ offense, led by young QB C.J. Stroud, will be tested by one of the NFL’s most dynamic defenses.
Bills Storyline to Watch:
Buffalo has a defense that has been hit by injuries, and this week will be no different with Von Miller suspended for four games. The Bills’ secondary will be tested, especially with rookie safety Cole Bishop getting his first NFL start in place of the injured Taylor Rapp. If Buffalo’s defensive front can’t get to Stroud, it could be a long day for the Bills in Houston.
Texans Storyline to Watch:
Houston has been a scrappy team, but their wins have come with plenty of mistakes. Coach DeMeco Ryans has this team fired up, but they’ll need to clean up the sloppiness to pull off a win against the Bills. Stroud’s ability to stay cool and make smart throws will be tested against a tough Buffalo pass rush.
Betting Take: I’m riding with the Texans -1 here. Stroud has been playing out of his mind, and the Texans’ defense has shown enough to slow down Josh Allen when it matters.
4. Chicago Bears -4 vs. Carolina Panthers
The Game:
This NFC matchup between two teams that have struggled early on could be a game where Chicago looks to build on their recent success. The Panthers have been plagued by injuries and inconsistent play, making this a tough road trip to Soldier Field.
Panthers Storyline to Watch:
Carolina will be without some key pieces on defense, including star linebacker Shaq Thompson and defensive lineman Derrick Brown. They’ll have two new inside linebackers trying to plug the gap against a Bears offense that’s found some rhythm in the running game, led by D’Andre Swift. The Panthers’ defense has given up a league-worst 32.3 points per game, which could spell disaster on the road.
Bears Storyline to Watch:
Chicago has been successful on the ground, and this week, they get to face one of the league’s worst rush defenses. The Bears are tied for 29th in sacks allowed, so if their offensive line holds up, they’ll be able to capitalize on Carolina’s depleted defense. Chicago’s rushing attack could dominate this game if they control the clock.
Betting Take: I’m taking the Bears at -4. The Panthers are banged up, and Chicago is coming off a solid performance that should carry them through to a victory.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Game:
Pittsburgh and Dallas are set to clash in an AFC-NFC matchup. The Steelers will look to capitalize on the Cowboys’ defensive injuries, while Dallas will try to rally without their two best defensive players in Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence.
Cowboys Storyline to Watch:
Without Parsons and Lawrence, Dallas’ defense will be severely hampered. They’ve been prone to giving up big plays and now face a Steelers offense that loves to run the ball. The Cowboys have struggled against teams that can control the clock, and Pittsburgh is well-equipped to do so.
Steelers Storyline to Watch:
Pittsburgh’s defense has shown vulnerabilities this season, but they’ll likely have a much easier time against a Cowboys offense that has been underwhelming in the passing game. Without Brandin Cooks and with Dak Prescott being pressured by the Steelers’ front seven, Dallas will have a tough time moving the ball consistently.
Betting Take: I’m going with the Steelers at -2.5. Dallas will struggle to generate offense without Parsons and Lawrence, and the Steelers should win this one in a close battle.
6. New Orleans Saints +5.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Game:
Kansas City travels to New Orleans in what could be a high-scoring affair. The Saints have been a surprise package this season, but they’ll need to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ high-flying offense.
Saints Storyline to Watch:
New Orleans’ tight end Taysom Hill has been dealing with rib and chest injuries, which could be a significant blow to their offense. When Hill is on the field, the Saints’ run game is more explosive, and they’ll need all the help they can get against Kansas City’s defense.
Chiefs Storyline to Watch:
The Chiefs have been excellent at slowing down high-scoring offenses, including holding teams like the Ravens and Bengals below their season averages. With Kansas City’s defense clicking, it will be interesting to see if they can handle the Saints’ dynamic attack led by Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara.
Betting Take: I’m taking the Saints +5.5 here. Kansas City might win, but I expect this to be a closer contest, especially if Hill plays.
