The Final 4 is here. It’s a clash between The Captain Of The 7 Seas Gault and The Mainstay, Bryon. In the other corner you have Steady As She Goes, Dave vs myself and the smorgasbord of behemoths that I’ve acquired throughout the season.
In round 1, Boss just couldn’t overcome the the virtual goose eggs that Deebo, Henry and Tyrone put up. To add insult to injury Monty is out with an MCL injury and Joe Mixon is still searching to find his early season form. Gault wasn’t far from making this interesting though. If it weren’t for Josh Allen scoring 46 and Mike Evans scoring 38, even if we bring those two down to more pedestrian levels of production, things are much, much spicier. Nevertheless, Mocha Joes closed its doors for good and looks to bear witness the spoils of Latte Larrys preposterous season.
Dave pulled off the improbable. Kupp getting shutout against the 49ers was the worst case scenario, and if things weren’t bad enough, Jonathan Taylor negated a 41 yard TD by dropping the ball before breaking the plane into the endzone resulting in a fumble and a touchback. Couple that with Kelces offensive woes in KC and Chubbas arguably worst game of the year, Luke just couldn’t keep things rolling into round 2.
So here we have a true cinderella story: Gault made the playoffs on PF and winning his final 2 games. Dave made the playoffs by an astounding 2 points… Which is still hard to believe. And now they’re in the 2nd round. Let’s look ahead.
me vs Dave
As I step off my high horse, it’s a tall task for Dave to come out ahead this week but it’s certainly not impossible. Herbert is playing his worst of season right now, Giants have even more turmoil at QB with Tim freaking Boyd playing, and George Pickens is fighting a hamstring injury that sidelined him 2 straight weeks. With Mooney coming off a 1 target shutout and Penix starting, Mooney is far from a reliable option. It might be Michael Pittman season as I look to unholster the deadliest weapon in the FA market. the stats say that Gibbs is in store for a monster game, but Kylers recent tweet suggests that the Cards are determined to get McBride into the endzone and his production is remarkable.
Dave is going to win the QB matchup with Kyler outscoring Herbert who’s also fighting a high ankle sprain.
RB 1 and 2 matchups, I should win with Jacobs and Gibbs vs Daves Pollard and Guerendo, but don’t be surprised if you see those 2 contend against my RB’s. Any RB1 in the 49 ers is guaranteed a good level of production and with competent QB play being supplied with Maosn Rudolph, it may open more running lanes and opportunity for Pollard.
Dave should win WR 1 and 2 battles. Ladd and Nico vs Nabers and CD, but it’ll be close. CD has been on a tear lately and Nabers has still put up really good numbers in spite of the QB / general offensive performance. Nico is big play and multi-TD threat every time he’s on the field. The Texans offensive struggles and awful o-line is what really puts his week in question. McConkey will get his catches and yard but he hasn’t really had a massive game with over 100 yards and a score.
McBride almost certainly outscores Jonnu, but if the Dolphins lean on him because the 49ers shutout Tyreek, and with Waddle out, it could be a massive game. This is easily the most intriguing player vs player matchup.
Flex wise, Bjan skews this so much that I think my flex positions outpace Daves. Drake London almost certainly doesnt see his normal volume with a rookie QB making his first career start and the Cowboys defense has come into form just in time for Bucky to face them. Even if Pickens doesn’t play, Pittman and Strange are getting above average production relative to their teams.
Bryon vs Gault
This is going to be the most watched game of the weekend. only 5 projected points separate them and it’s all going to come down to the star power of Gault vs the well rounded roster of Bryon. We’ll see what hypothesis is proven true – star power vs well balanced team. Nobody is hotter than Gault and Josh Allen + Evans and Puka is a triple threat that’d keep anyone awake at night. Bryon is no slouch though. Burrow, Barkley, Wilson, and Kittle have all been having monster years and they haven’t really hit a wall. They peak and just stay at a high level all the time.
Both QB’s are plaing awful teams. I think the edge here goes to Bryon though. The Browns defense has been dreadful when they’re forced to play majority of the game due to an inept offense and that’s what’s likely to happen with DTR playing, despite a bad Bengals D.
I think Bryon also win the RB 1 & 2 battle. Kamara is banged up and Saquon is on a historic pace en route to what should be an MVP caliber season. James Cook shouldn’t need to do much to outscore whoever Gault puts in the RB2 slot be in Kamara or Swift.
I think Gault win WR1 and 2. Browns should be able to do enough to get Jeudy a respectable stat line. Something like 4-48 yards or 6-35. Just enough to keep Gault afloat and outpace Flowers as the run heavy Raven take on the Pitt D. Also, the Evans force feed buffet continues as he looks to keep his 1k+ yard streak alive and the chemistry between him and Baker is undeniable as evidenced by the trouncing that they put on the number 1 D in the chargers. I don’t think Wilson out paces him going up against a Rams defense who’s coming into form as they make a late push for their divisional title.
Kittle is going to easily outscore Kraft. He’s WR1 for the 49ers and they’re playing a reeling Dolphins team in nice weather in Miami. Look for him to go off and Purdy to put on a show as Purdy makes a stronger case for a big contract.
Here’s where things get interesting. Gault is probably going to put Swift in the RB2 slot and bench Kamara. That means its Puka and a red hot McMillan vs Jayden Reed and DK. Both flex players for Bryon have been massively relegated to supporting roles on their respective teams while the 2 players for Gault have taken their performances to new heights. I fail to see a reason why those trends are bucked and that leaves the edge going to Gault but not in a landslide since DK or Reed may still find the endzone as they face heightened scrutiny and their respective teams may make a concerted effort to get them in the end zone for morales sake.
PICK’EM
Unbiasedly I think I edge out Dave but it won’t be a blow out. I think we both under achieve our projections and final ends up looking something like 138-127. Bijan and Jacobs provide just enough of a delta in their matchups to get me over the edge. It’ll be close everywhere else.
I just don’t see the Gault train slowing down. I see another astronomical point performance out of him.. like 160+ points and Bryons flex players are just the achilles heal. I also think James Cook has a quiet day and the Patriots show up to give themselves momentum heading into next year behind Drake Maye. Maye and Allen will go toe -to- toe and the Bills turn to Ty Johnson to provide a spark out of the backfield in the pass game. Cook is no stranger to stinker performances as he’s put up 5.8, 9.2 and 4.9 points this year. I think we see a sub 11 point performance. I think it’ll be something like a 166-144 high scoring affair in favor of Gault.
